The Future Outlook of Taliban Governance
America’s foreign policy shifted when Donald Trump became president in 2017. The United States militarily disengaged from many parts of the world. With no interest in continuing its presence in Afghanistan, and deeming that its government was corrupt and collapsing, the U.S. reached an agreement with the Taliban in Doha, effectively handing it Afghanistan.
From America’s perspective, the Taliban possessed strategic advantages and were capable of acting as an intelligence-security partner. The Taliban could dominate Afghanistan and manage a fragile state at minimal cost.
In their second time in power, the Taliban improved their governance techniques. However, they struggle to fulfill citizens’ basic needs. The Taliban uses religion to cover the regime’s shortcomings, creating an intensely securitized public space. Many individuals and political and administrative groups have been removed from the public as the Taliban attempts to establish a government based on an “emir-subject” model.
The Taliban governs an alienated population that fears rather than identifies with their governance. Internal divisions, once strictly concealed, have become so public that even Taliban leadership has acknowledged them. These divisions could lead to unexpected developments. Moreover, the Taliban faces significant challenges in assigning administrative roles, underscoring deep internal fissures.
Given these points, there are four potential scenarios for the future of the Taliban:
- Strategic actions for domestic legitimacy: Taliban leadership may take practical steps to gain internal legitimacy and reduce the distance between the government and its citizens. Improving educational opportunities for women and men and enhancing living standards are plausible scenarios favoured by some younger Taliban leaders.
- Internal coup: Intensified internal rivalries, supported by political factions or regional and global powers, could trigger an internal coup. The potential deaths of key Taliban leaders might exacerbate succession challenges.
- Increased public dissatisfaction and revolt: Growing public dissatisfaction, combined with strengthened anti-Taliban movements, could lead to a widespread public uprising.
- Escalation of terrorist activities: Terrorist groups, backed by foreign powers and anti-Taliban factions, might intensify their activities and create conditions favourable for the Taliban’s downfall.
Throughout their three years in power, the Taliban have attempted to maintain control through military means. Nevertheless, the group lacks domestic legitimacy and faces considerable challenges in an era increasingly shaped by digital governance tools and a world increasingly living online. Establishing an “emir-subject” system between a bankrupt state and an unhappy population is unsustainable.
Hasibullah Shaheen is a writer from Afghanistan living in exile.
