Afghanistan’s foreign aid addiction is a recipe for continuous chaos and destruction
In August 2021, the United States withdrew its forces from Afghanistan but left behind a vast arsenal of military equipment and did not halt the flow of dollars into the country. The latest statements from U.S. President Donald Trump indicate that budget allocations for Afghanistan and foreign aid financial transfers to the Taliban may continue under his administration.
Initially, Trump’s order to suspend all foreign aid through its development agency, USAID, created the impression that a crucial financial lifeline of the Taliban might be cut off. Certainly, humanitarian and development aid designed to help the people of Afghanistan has been halted. The Afghan currency market experienced some turbulence at first.
However, it soon became clear that forces beyond Trump’s authority were preventing the severance of all dollar transactions with the Taliban. Trump now says that giving money to the Taliban may not be a problem – “I want to look at it, but if we’re going to give them money, it’s okay” – but he wants them to “return our military equipment.” Some opponents of the Taliban have expressed their willingness to help recover U.S. weaponry, though John Sopko, the former Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), stated at the Herat Security Conference in Madrid that the American weapons left in Afghanistan are “not worth retrieving.”
The SIGAR office, which has monitored U.S. aid flows in Afghanistan since 2008 and is set to be dissolved following its final report in January 2026, remains a relatively credible source for investigating the specifics of direct U.S. assistance to Afghanistan. Every three months, this agency publishes a comprehensive report on U.S. aid. Its most recent report, released on January 30 came days after the Trump administration imposed a three-month suspension on foreign aid. According to this report, the U.S. has allocated US$3.71 billion in aid within Afghanistan since the Taliban’s return to power. Of this amount, 64 percent was channeled through UN agencies, the World Bank, and the Afghanistan Resilience Trust Fund (ARTF), while the remaining $1.2 billion remains available in the funding pipeline for possible disbursement.
What does the U.S. expect from spending this money?
The total amount of money publicly spent and pledged by the U.S. for Afghanistan since August 2021 is significantly higher than the $3.7 billion mentioned earlier. In its report, SIGAR includes three additional amounts, bringing the total to more than $21.4 billion. This includes:
- $8.7 billion to “support of Afghan evacuees resettling in the United States through the Operation Allies Welcome (OAW) program.”.
- $5.5 billion for “whole-of-government successor program to OAW,” which provides for the relocation and resettlement of Afghans in the United States.
- $3.5 billion “in Afghan central bank assets previously frozen in the United States to the Swiss-based Fund for the Afghan People or ‘Afghan Fund.’”
The $3.7 billion disbursed within Afghanistan by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) through international organizations and NGOs to support sectors including health, agriculture, and education is effectively a part of U.S. support for the Taliban administration. SIGAR reports that these funds were allocated with the following objectives:
- Preventing the collapse of Afghanistan’s economy under Taliban rule.
- Preventing Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for terrorists.
- Securing the release of American hostages from Taliban prisons.
- Preventing the persecution of former Afghan government employees.
- Protecting media freedom and women’s rights.
However, according to SIGAR’s report, apart from the first goal (economic stabilization), none of the other objectives have been achieved.
SIGAR also states that several other countries and international institutions — Germany, the United Kingdom, the Asian Development Bank, the European Union, the World Bank, Canada, Australia, Sweden, and others — have contributed to multilateral aid efforts over the past three years. Collectively, they and the United States have injected $8.3 billion into Afghanistan’s economy.
This amount exceeds the Taliban’s domestic revenue. According to Afghanistan’s National Statistics and Information Authority:
- 1400 (2021-22): Domestic revenue was 160.3 billion afghani
- 1401 (2022-23): Domestic revenue was 198.7 billion afghani
- 1402 (2023-24): Domestic revenue was 210 billion afghani
In September 2023, the World Bank reported that Afghanistan’s revenue for 1403 (2024-25) was expected to surpass the previous year’s earnings. If we take an average of 200 billion afghani in annual domestic revenue over three years, it equals approximately $2.7 billion per year at current exchange rates.
This means that the Taliban’s domestic revenue for the last three years combined, at best, is only equal to the official and declared foreign aid Afghanistan has received.
These figures highlight the Taliban Emirate’s severe dependence on foreign aid. Beyond the officially reported amounts, substantial unreported and covert funds continue to flow into Afghanistan’s economy under Taliban rule. At least three major unofficial financial sources can be identified:
- Religious donations and intelligence assistance: A significant portion of unofficial funding likely comes in the form of religious donations and covert intelligence aid, funneled to different Taliban factions, jihadist groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS, and other militant actors from across the region and the wider world.
- Remittances from Afghan expatriates: Funds sent by Afghan workers and residents abroad to their families or for local development and charitable projects also contribute significantly.
- Drug revenue: Despite the decline in opium production, the illicit drug economy continues to generate income.
This financial environment enables the Taliban’s supreme leader, Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada, to maintain his tens-of-thousands-strong suppression forces in Kandahar. It also allows Taliban ministers, commanders, and officials to establish orphanages and madrasas as recruitment hubs for children and teenagers, thereby ensuring a continuous supply of fighters. By having the world fund basic and essential services, the Taliban are free to fund internal power struggles and their suppression of opposition forces.
A recipe for the Taliban Emirate’s instability and inevitable downfall
These fragile finances also lay the groundwork for the Taliban Emirate’s eventual collapse. The Taliban’s addiction to short-term foreign assistance and intelligence funding, which could dry up at any moment, plus illicit drug money sustained by oppression and discrimination, is a recipe for chaos and destruction.
Currently, the most reliable non-domestic funding source keeping the Taliban’s system operational is the United States. However, this aid will not last indefinitely. While Trump indicated that foreign aid money will continue flowing to the Taliban, SIGAR reports show a decline in official U.S. assistance:
- 2022: $1.2 billion
- 2023: $1.4 billion
- 2024: $798.8 million
- 2025: $255.3 million
U.S. aid to Afghanistan is rapidly shrinking, reinforcing the idea that the Taliban’s reliance on foreign funding is unsustainable.
The impact of reduced aid on non-Taliban groups
Trump’s three-month suspension of foreign aid has affected both the Taliban and non-Taliban populations, but the immediate burden falls heaviest on non-Taliban groups: Educational programs have shut down for women and girls deprived of schooling; countless migrant families are stranded in limbo, without protection or resources; anti-Taliban media outlets are struggling with severe funding shortages. Meanwhile, Taliban fighters continue to receive their salaries; Taliban-run madrasas and orphanages are open and operational; financial support from the Taliban for Pakistani Taliban fighters and other extremist allies still flows.
For all political factions in Afghanistan, it should now be clear from experience that foreign aid is not the saviour of the country— instead, it has become a major obstacle to establishing a national government and a self-sufficient economy. While aid is used to build schools and clinics and feed the hungry, it also enriches certain individuals and has helped fuel war, destruction, instability, and dependency.
Afghanistan’s dependency on foreign funds, both military and developmental, has a long history, but its most damaging wave began after the April 1978 coup. Like an opium addiction, it spread across all social and political groups, weakening Afghanistan’s cultural, political, and economic foundations.
Without the foreign-funded jihad of the 1980s and the billions poured in after 2001, the Taliban’s oppressive, anti-education, anti-women, and anti-freedom regime would not have emerged from within Afghan society. The current crisis is the direct result of a dependency on foreign funding — a disease that has shaped Afghanistan’s trajectory for decades.
While reducing foreign aid will cause short-term suffering, in the long run, it is necessary for Afghanistan to build a national government and free itself from foreign intelligence projects that have dictated its fate for too long.
Younus Negah is a researcher and writer from Afghanistan who is currently in exile in Turkey.
