Sham reforms in Saudi Arabia are not a model of progress
Mohammed bin Salman, the ambitious crown prince of Saudi Arabia, is the most powerful Arab. Many in Muslim countries who are weary of Islamists have admired his reforms. In recent years, especially since the Taliban’s return to power, Afghans have noted the contrast between what is happening in the birthplace of Islam and in Afghanistan. Some praise Mohammed bin Salman for his reforms, viewing him as a positive model and a catalyst for change in Muslim-majority societies, which might weaken political Islamists. In Saudi Arabia, the middle classes and urban dwellers are pleased with the changes. Women are increasingly taking on managerial roles and are more visible in public and workplaces.
But will the Saudi example lead to positive change in the Muslim world?
In Saudi Arabia, the developments introduced by the crown prince are indeed novel. Since the early 20th century, when the House of Saud came to power, their rule has been based on an alliance with religious conservatives. During this entire period, especially in the latter half of the 20th century, the Muslim world faced a crisis in how to deal with Western modernity and democracy. Across the broader Middle East, rulers experimented with civil, political, and economic freedoms and reforms. Yet the Saudi throne, securely supported by three robust pillars – religious conservatism, oil wealth, and Western, particularly American, support – did not allow civil and political reforms to take root.
Now, those three pillars of the absolute monarchy in Saudi Arabia are eroding. In the age of the internet and mass media, religious obscurantists can no longer manipulate and control the public opinion like before. Saudi oil wealth is also in decline; in the coming decades, it may dwindle to the point where it can no longer serve as a pillar of the monarchy. At the same time, technological advancements are reducing the world’s reliance on oil, which will reduce Saudi Arabia’s value for America and its allies. Additionally, America’s dominance is being challenged as China and other consortiums of power exert their own power over the Middle East and North Africa.
Therefore, since 2017, when Mohammed bin Salman became crown prince, Saudi Arabia has charted a new course as it attempts to lay new foundations for its monarchy. The reforms are aimed at transitioning the country into one in which foreign investment replaces oil and tourism plays a key role in the economy. These designs to sustain the monarchy and preserve the authority of its autocratic rulers are the Achilles’ heel of the current development in Saudi Arabia.
Through massive government-led projects, Mohammed bin Salman seeks to prepare the country for this economic transition. He is also incorporating cultural reforms into the process. He hopes that a quasi-secular society with relatively modern civil liberties will create an environment conducive to economic growth. To this end, Mohammed bin Salman has initiated extensive domestic reforms, including transforming the roles of religion, family, women, and education within the kingdom. Yet, the political space is tightly controlled.
While a succession of Saudi rulers kept their country closed to any form of civil or political reform, other Arab and Muslim nations experimented with various paths: revolutions, democracy, enlightened autocracy (political authoritarianism with relative civil liberties), and religious tyranny. Egypt, Libya, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran each witnessed both repeated and profound changes. Yet, one crucial element was missing in all these transformations: a balanced combination of democracy and secularism.
Even Turkey, which remains the most successful example in the region, has stumbled as it fails to simultaneously uphold democracy and secularism. For years, Turkey’s political leaders sacrificed democracy to defend secularism, while military generals dominated the polity. At other times, democracy flourished, but secularism came under attack.
The development in Saudi Arabia is not entirely new for the region. The crown prince sounds like Saddam Hussein, who also claimed he would modernize and advance his country without democracy and political freedoms. The Iraqi dictator also supported music, dance, freedom of dress, and entertainment. Under his rule, women were allowed to drive, engage in commerce, and work in offices. Women’s and girls’ education faced no restrictions during his administration. Foreign singers were also permitted to hold concerts in Saddam-controlled Iraq.
Similarly, Muammar Gaddafi of Libya, Reza Shah of Iran, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, and even Daoud Khan, Afghanistan’s one-time ruler, all pursued, in one way or another, the same path that Mohammed bin Salman is now treading.
Efforts by rulers to adopt the superficial trappings of civil liberties without political democracy have been repeatedly tried in our region, often with painful consequences. When a society is allowed to taste limited civil freedoms but denied true liberty and democracy, the result is often new chaos and extremism. A society permitted access to education, music, travel, and leisure but deprived of political freedom becomes diseased.
Superficial reforms in Arab countries, which have lacked democracy and the inclusion of ordinary people in power and wealth, have failed to achieve success. Top-down, imposed civil liberties often provoke reactions from the lower classes and fail to gain the support of the masses. When civil liberties are combined with political dictatorship and repression, societies enter crises, leaving a large segment of the middle classes and urban dwellers disillusioned, which can help provoke new upheavals and extremist movements.
What is happening in Saudi Arabia today is a transfer of power from the older and more conservative generation of the House of Saud to a more liberal and younger generation. However, such a transition cannot create a free and democratic society. In this kind of system, a truly democratic culture based on democratic and civic engagement will not form.
If Mohammed bin Salman’s Saudi Arabia succeeds, it might resemble Dubai: a place where music and dancing are permitted, but democracy, innovation, and political participation are absent. In such a society, the formal economy and entertainment industries may thrive, but the country will not become either free or democratic. This is because Mohammed bin Salman and his allies are unwilling to relinquish their monopoly over power and wealth.
Younus Negah is a researcher and writer from Afghanistan who is currently in exile in Turkey.
