After the fall of the republican government of Afghanistan in August 2021, hundreds of thousands of people, including former government employees, military personnel, activists, and journalists, entered Pakistan to avoid arrest and death at the hands of the Taliban. Many of those migrants in Pakistan had worked with Western missions and NGOs in Afghanistan and are still waiting for their resettlement applications to be processed. Time is running out.
In an unprecedented move, the Pakistani government imposed stringent measures to expel refugees from Afghanistan, impacting the lives of nearly 1.5 million lives. This displaced population includes former government employees, human and women’s rights activists, and journalists, all of whom are in danger if returned to Afghanistan. Even refugees with valid documents are being arrested by the Pakistani police, who extort money from them by taking them to detention centres, where they are mistreated and beaten. To avoid such arbitrary arrests, even documented refugees are avoiding going outside unless absolutely needed.
Ostensibly, Pakistan’s arrests and deportations are rooted in the fear that there might be individuals with malicious intentions, such as terrorists or those linked to criminal networks, among the population of Afghan migrants. Distinguishing between those genuinely seeking asylum and those posing a security threat can be challenging. The manipulation of public opinion by political figures adds another layer to the narrative, exacerbating already negative perceptions of refugees and migrants. Politicians exploit existing fears and anxieties for electoral gains, framing immigration as a threat to national security or cultural integrity.
So why has the Pakistani government taken such a step as Afghanistan is entering its winter season, which makes the lives of deported refugees exceptionally challenging?
The Pakistani government asserts there is a connection between Afghanistan’s refugees residing in Pakistan and escalating insecurity in the country. Since the Taliban assumed control of Afghanistan on August 15, 2021, the Islamist militant group Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has targeted Pakistan’s armed forces, creating a perceived association between the influx of refugees and the threat to Pakistan’s security.
People in Afghanistan as well as its diaspora speculate about a connection between Pakistan’s mass deportation of refugees and the border issue between the two countries. They believe that Pakistan aims to coerce the Taliban government into recognizing the Durand Line as the official international border between the two countries, and are amping up the pressure on the Taliban regime by returning huge numbers of refugees across the border. The Taliban foreign minister did not explicitly confirm this theory in an interview with BBC Pashto but did say that the border issue is up to the people living on both sides of the border to decide, which is a conveniently vague scripted line that Pashtun politicians have often parroted on the issue, including former president Ashraf Ghani, who used it in his 2014 presidential electoral campaign.
Another significant factor in shaping negative attitudes toward refugees in Pakistan is the lack of economic opportunities in its struggling economy. With such instability and when resources are perceived as scarce, the people in Pakistan may view refugees and migrants as competitors for desperately needed jobs and resources and the source of Pakistan’s woes. The result is a zero-sum mentality, which is used by the government to divert attention from its own economic mismanagement and corruption. Though some migrants have called Pakistan home for years, the government displays a palpable lack of empathy toward Afghans who have established deep social and economic connections in the country.
In Afghanistan, the forced return of so many refugees will not only deepen the existing humanitarian and economic crisis in the country, but will certainly also heighten social tensions. There are tangible fears within minority groups that the Taliban will exploit the crisis by strategically resettling refugees in areas where opposition to their regime is strongly rooted. Not only would this exacerbate the stresses on already precarious communities, but, by resettling refugees on lands historically inhabited by Hazaras, Tajiks, and Uzbeks, the Taliban could be aiming at diluting the threat of uprisings against its regime.
There are broader concerns – the Pakistani government’s decision to forcibly expel families from their safe haven raises profound humanitarian and geopolitical issues and are affecting the stability of the entire region. Those impacts that are only now becoming apparent, even as activists and advocates urge the Pakistani government to reconsider its decision not to safeguard the lives and dignity of those who sought refuge within its borders.
Rustam Ali Seerat is a research scholar at the South Asian University in New Delhi, India.
