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Outlooks of war and peace in Afghanistan

By Dr. Mohammad Hossain Kholosi 

Almost two years have passed since the Taliban came to power. Despite the Taliban’s territorial control of Afghanistan, they have failed to gain either domestic and international legitimacy. Taking control of some embassies, participating in the Samarkand meeting, and, finally, recent comments by UN deputy general-secretary Amina Mohammad, have raised the question of whether the Taliban will be recognized as a legitimate national government and as a member of the international community. 

To answer this question, to forecast a vision of Afghanistan’s political future we must look at the following facts: 

  1. Contemporary history shows that the most important factor of change in Afghanistan is the geopolitical position of this country. Political regimes have been riding geopolitical waves – they come in and are swept away by them. In 2001, an American and NATO-led Western coalition entered the country. At that time, most nations cooperated with their state-building efforts, even countries that would traditionally have opposed such American-led reconstruction plans. But this consensus fell apart after 2004, and some nations began opposing the U.S. presence in Afghanistan. That was also when the Taliban started their insurgency. I believe that this geopolitical split is reappearing. The re-emergence of anti-Taliban armed groups have attracted international attention, which should, in time, bifurcate the international community on the question of the Taliban even if the United Nations conditionally recognizes the regime.  
  1. The Taliban is unofficially accepted as a political reality by many countries. In the Qatar negotiations, they continuously assured everyone that they’d changed and would not their past draconian internal policies and the belligerent foreign policy. The last two years have shown that they haven’t changed. In the domestic arena, the Taliban government is as ethnic chauvinist, misogynist, and reactionary as they’ve always been. Some reports show that more than 20 terrorist groups are now active in Afghanistan, as are the Taliban’s connections with international terrorist networks. The Taliban victory has boosted morale of terrorists and fundamentalists in the region. For the first time, the Pakistani Taliban is emerging as a force for serious destabilization in that nation. And Islamist groups of the East Turkestan region of China as well as Central Asia could potentially receive support from the Taliban to carry out their own subversive operations. No wonder that the dangers posed by the spread of terrorism from Afghanistan was the main topic of discussion at the Samarkand meeting. 
  1. Taliban opponents are gradually coming out of the shock created after the collapse of the previous government. Now, Taliban opponents are growing closer to each other. Recently they intensified efforts to form a politically cohesive front in order to confront the Taliban. On the military front, opposition activities are increasing and the response to casualties incurred by the Afghanistan Liberation Front demonstrated that there is widespread social support for the struggle against Taliban. Two other developments are taking shape, both of which belong to the young, educated generation of Afghanistan. First, women are showing both determination and political will as they fight against brutal systemic discrimination. They were among the first to condemn Amina Mohammad’s statements that hinted that Taliban recognition was in the offing. They made sure the international community and the UN knew of their opposition to any such step. Second, the young population have created new organizations and initiatives to respond to the current situation. They have begun to walk a new path in Afghanistan.  

Although the collapse of the republican government was difficult for women and the educated generation, it also ignited a sense of social responsibility in them. The widespread opposition of the Taliban by these forces have created large barriers to any international recognition.  

Examining the political variables shows that there is hope for a future political transformation in Afghanistan. The international community isn’t united when it comes to recognizing the regime. The reactionary and terrorist policies of the Taliban have exposed the despicable face of the group. The entry of the educated younger generation as well as women into political action signal a profound transformation. Those three factors herald change for Afghanistan though this change does not mean that power will be distributed peacefully or that an acceptable political system will emerge in Afghanistan.  

The possibility of a political system based on consensus is just one possibility. The lack of rationality in the Taliban makes other scenarios inevitable, including the possibility of another war with opposition groups. The Taliban do not believe in the legitimate demands of the people or the distribution of power among all ethnic groups. Like other ethnic chauvinist forces, they consider themselves the sole rightful owners of Afghanistan. Although Taliban will not be accepted as a legitimate national government by all nations, some governments may recognize them based on the concessions they receive from the Taliban. 

Nevertheless, as the activities of opposition forces increase, the political arena is becoming more polarized. The young, intellectuals, and women are moving from the margins of society into the centre as they devise and pursue new political aims. Their efforts put democracy and the people’s will at the centre of political discourse. The outcome of these developments is the fading of the Taliban’s dominance. 

Mohammad Hossain Kholosi has Ph.D. in political philosophy and writes on issues of geopolitics.