No one knows exactly how many Afghans are refugees. International organizations and host countries offer different figures, and at times, those numbers are more political statements than accurate data. For example, the estimates of the Afghan migrant population in Iran range from four million to eight or even 10 million, depending on the source. What is clear is that a large segment of Afghanistan’s population is living in exile.
Millions of Afghans live around the world. If they were to form a country, their population would surpass that of influential countries such Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, or Israel. Some migrants have been fortunate to find refuge in safer corners of the world and have rebuilt their lives with new jobs and homes. Others struggle for survival.
Given that our homeland has been turned into a prison by the Taliban, migration — even to Iran or Pakistan — is considered a privilege. Though fleeing the Taliban emirate is seen as liberation and progress, the burden of deprivation does not easily let go. Most refugees must face death multiple times before finally reaching a safe destination. Many others are wounded, killed or disappear during their attempts. According to the International Organization for Migration, at least 72,000 people – including 5,000 Afghans – have died or gone missing on migration routes in the past decade. When these migrants reach a place safer than Afghanistan, the immediate threat of hunger and death may subside but their fear of deportation and the exhausting struggle for integration is only beginning. Even arrival in Western countries does not mean the end of the fight for survival as Afghan migrants must often spend years trying to gain acceptance.
The recent (and later denied) rumours of a Swiss plan to deport Pashtun migrants, and the recurring tensions among Afghans themselves — about who is truly deserving of asylum and who is “faking victimhood” — offer a glimpse of the psychological pressures that Afghan migrants endure.
Given the current situation in Afghanistan, people will continue to leave, even if a normal government were to replace the Taliban. Establishing the political and economic stability needed to make staying in Afghanistan more appealing than leaving will take time. Therefore, the fate of migrants will remain a national issue for years to come.
Of course, migration is a global issue, and the conditions of migrants have a significant impact on the world economy as a whole.
According to estimates published last year by international labour organizations, there were 284.5 million migrants around the world in 2022 — equivalent to 3 percent of the global population. Of this number, 255.7 million were of working age, and 167.7 million were considered part of the active labour force. To understand the significance of this workforce, consider that the total labour force of the world’s largest economy, the United States, was slightly under 170 million people in 2022.
In that year, 155.6 million migrants were employed, and only 12.3 million were either unemployed, working in informal jobs, or actively searching for work.
This massive population plays a crucial role in the global economy. In terms of skills and capabilities, migrants are among the most diverse and active labour forces in the world. They contribute to the global economy by working across all sectors — from universities, research centers, and government offices to physically demanding and often underpaid labor in mines, municipalities, and farms — all while often enduring harsh conditions and low expectations.
While working as hard as possible, a large portion of migrants live without legal protections. Even in advanced societies — where politicians understand the vital role that migrants play in keeping the economic machine running, and where laws have been eased to attract this wandering workforce — the threat of xenophobia and deportation always looms migrants.
The fate of migrants is especially grim for those who have taken refuge in the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia. Sadly, a sizable portion of the millions-strong migrant labour force in those regions is treated like modern-day slaves. In addition, the overall conditions being endured by migrants around the world may become even more turbulent in the years ahead.
This upheaval stems from the rapidly changing global landscape and depends on how individual countries and societies manage technological transformations and massive market shifts. Some experts argue that today’s world is undergoing a transition comparable to the shift from agricultural to industrial economies — except this time, the transformation is unfolding far more rapidly and with potentially more startling consequences.
In parts of the world where governments control markets and technology, societies are in a process of reconstruction, preparing to enter a new and uncertain era. As tools of labour and capital evolve in the years ahead, so do values and social relationships.
Some migrant-receiving societies feel these changes more acutely than others because they are more advanced and more dependent on technology. Change can bring tension and anxiety, and politicians often seek scapegoats to channel public frustration — targeting minorities, “foreigners,” and those perceived to be “outsiders.” Migrants, especially those who have significant cultural differences from host communities, can become the easiest and most defenseless targets during election seasons, economic downturns, or periods of rising unemployment.
In such situations, solidarity among Afghan migrants — and a commitment to supporting each other rather than creating obstacles or false accusations — is not just desirable but is urgently needed.
Younus Negah is a researcher and writer from Afghanistan who is currently in exile in Turkey.
