The decline of the emirate
In an audio recording released on January 27, Mullah Hibatullah stated that he would not surrender to the pressures of the East and West. Over the past few years, the Taliban leader has made enemies across Afghanistan — even within the Taliban itself. Signs of his fear of growing opposition are becoming evident, as is the decline of his emirate. This year is likely to be a difficult one.
The Taliban have attempted to sustain their rule through a combination of internal repression and flexibility toward foreign powers. They have repeatedly declared that they have no permanent enmity with any country and are willing to engage in trade and cooperation with all Eastern and Western countries — provided that these states do not interfere with how the emirate rules the people of Afghanistan.
Perhaps recalling the history of Afghanistan in the 19th and early 20th centuries, Mullah Hibatullah and his advisors believe that appeasement toward foreign powers — even at the cost of international isolation — will help prolong the rule of their despotic emirate.
Two prominent Afghan emirs of the 19th century, Dost Mohammad Khan and Abdur Rahman Khan, ruled for long periods using this strategy. This tradition remained valid until 1919 when Amanullah Khan, with the support of the constitutional movement, declared Afghanistan’s independence. However, foreign interventions and authoritarian regimes have continued to plague our country. Afghanistan has never established a government that both respects the political and civil rights of its citizens and represents the Afghan people independently on the global stage.
At the same time, neither the domestic environment nor international conditions allow for the emergence of a new Dost Mohammad Khan or Abdur Rahman Khan — someone who signs an agreement with a superpower, turns away from the international stage and can rule comfortably for years by issuing decrees at will, eliminating rivals, crushing opposition through torture and executions, and eventually dying of old age in the comfort of his own bed.
The Taliban hope that Donald Trump’s return to the White House will create an opportunity for a deal to secure the survival of the Taliban. It may not lead to the formal recognition of their oppressive, anti-freedom, anti-women, and anti-education emirate but would shield them from outside pressure over their inhumane policies inside Afghanistan. Analysts believe the Taliban leader wants to guarantee the future of his emirate through direct negotiations with the Trump administration in exchange for intelligence cooperation.
The mullah faces numerous enemies — within the Taliban itself, among the Afghan people, in regional countries, and from international organizations.
Having lost many of their rights and freedoms, the Afghan people oppose the Taliban emirate.
Hibatullah’s internal rivals within the Taliban challenge his rule through obstruction, disobedience, or lack of cooperation. Non-Taliban politicians seek to overthrow his emirate through political struggle. Competing regional powers, avoiding excessive closeness to Hibatullah, maintain ties with influential figures outside his inner circle, investing in Afghanistan’s post-Taliban future or a post-Hibatullah scenario.
Human rights organizations and activists resist the Taliban’s rule and, advocating for the rights of women, girls, and other oppressed groups suffering under Taliban discrimination.
Intellectuals, political and civil activists, and international media and NGOswork to expose Taliban atrocities, especially those committed by Hibatullah’s faction. Through reports, conferences, and lobbying efforts, they strive to increase awareness and pressure against the Taliban’s extremist rule. A prime example of these efforts is the recent request by the International Criminal Court’s Office of the Prosecutor for an arrest warrant against Mullah Hibatullah. His recent speech — of which only a few moments have been released to the media — appears to be directly linked to this legal request by the ICC’s prosecution office.
The significance of the ICC arrest warrant request
Three days after Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, Karim Ahmad Khan, the British-Pakistani lawyer who has roots in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, appeared in a video message announcing that his office — the Office of the Prosecutor at the ICC — had submitted two arrest warrant requests for Mullah Hibatullah and Abdul Hakim Haqqani to the relevant ICC chamber.
In his brief statement, Karim Ahmad Khan explained that his office had gathered sufficient evidence through more than two years of investigations since late 2022 for them to ask for the arrests of the two men. This evidence, compiled through document collection, victim interviews, analysis of Taliban decrees and policies, and work done by experts and international organizations, indicate that the leader of the Taliban the group’s chief justice, were responsible for crimes against humanity, including the persecution and torture of the Afghan people on the basis of gender.
The prosecutor’s official statement outlines howMullah Hibatullah and Abdul Hakim Haqqani have systematically persecuted women, girls, and individuals who do not conform to the Taliban’s worldview. Since seizing power on August 15, 2021, they have carried out abuses including the ongoing oppression and severe deprivation of fundamental rights such as bodily autonomy, freedom of movement and expression, access to education, private and family life, and the right to assembly. The ICC prosecutor’s office states that any resistance or opposition to Taliban rulings has been met with execution, imprisonment, torture, sexual violence, enforced disappearances, and other inhumane acts. They also promise to issue further arrest warrants for other senior Taliban members in the near future.
Along with the arrest warrant requests, two additional detailed documents — each 51-pages long — were submitted. They outline the backgrounds and case details of Mullah Hibatullah and Abdul Hakim Haqqani. While portions of these documents were redacted to protect witnesses and sources, they provide a comprehensive picture of the Taliban’s crimes over the past three and a half years and the direct role the two men play in orchestrating these atrocities. These documents are supported by extensive audio, video, and written evidence and form a crucial record of Taliban crimes.
Even if these arrest warrants do not lead to the immediate arrest and prosecution of Taliban leaders, this move by the ICC represents a significant step in the fight against the Taliban and their inhumane policies. Established under the initiative of the United Nations and with the approval of the majority of its member states, the ICC holds international legitimacy; its statements, reports, directives, and rulings lead to serious consequences. These actions will further restrict the Taliban’s ability to gain international recognition, limit the diplomatic mobility of its officials, and further damage its political standing in global public opinion.
Unlike the relatively easy process of removing Taliban leaders from the UN blacklist, closing these ICC cases will not be simple. If the court proceeds to issue official arrest warrants, the cases will remain open until the Taliban leaders either face trial or die. Consequently, pragmatic Taliban officials — those seeking to solidify their political roles in a post-Taliban Afghanistan or after Mullah Hibatullah — may take steps to avoid being implicated, which could lead to even further internal divisions and heightened tensions within the Taliban ranks.
Additionally, this expert-led investigation by a credible international institution will serve as an essential historical record of this dark period in Afghanistan’s history. In the future, while reports, articles, and even victim testimonies may be questioned, the documented evidence stored in the archives of the ICC will be far harder to deny or erase.
Younus Negah is a researcher and writer from Afghanistan who is currently in exile in Turkey.